Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul who is the only candidate for the Presidency has today withdrawn his candidacy. Gul’s withdrawal does not come as a surprise as in the repeat first round of the presidential vote in the Parliament the required 2/3 quorum coul dnot be attained. Announcing the withdrawal of his candidacy Gul underlined that he did not want to continue with the remaining three rounds as he did not want to further”damage the credibility of the Parliament”. He added that from now on it was up to the Turkish people to decide who the next President would be.

The current situation is a true mess and full with uncertainty. The pro-establishment opposition parties will try to stop the constitutional  amendment under way which would call for the President to be elected by popular vote. In any event it seems very unlikely from a procedural perspective to have the two elections at the same time.

I am attaching an FT piece about  Gul’s withdrawal below.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/01834d72-fbe2-11db-93a4-000b5df10621.html

The coming days will  witness  a struggle between the AK Party and the opposition  on the proposed constitutional amendment. It  is unclear which side came out victorious out of the recent political crisis.  What is clear is that the only way out of this mess is an early election as soon as possible. Currently, it is scheduled for  July 22.

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Since there has been considerable confusion about the current political crisis in Turkey let me explain who is who and what is happening and why it matters.

The Facts:

The current constitution requires the President to be elected by the Parliament. The Turkish Parliament is made up of 550 MPs. A 2/3 majority coincides to 367 MPs. The Constitution is not clear whether there needs to be a 2/3 majority voting in an a presidential election. The recent ruling by the Constitutional Court was in favor of having 367 MPs voting in the Parliament but the vote was annulled. The only candidate, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul obtained 357 votes out of the 361 voting. The main opposition party the Republican People’s Party (CHP) took the vote to the Constitutional Court where it was annulled.

The Court’s ruling is seen as controversial and politically motivated, as,  in the past, under the same constitution Presidents have been elected by lesser quorums (less than a 2/3 majority). Prior to the ruling on Friday night the Turkish Armed Forces issues a stern statement warning the Government that it would not accept a President from the ruling AK Party (Justice and Development Party) and would intervene if necessary. As the Turkish military has intervened four times since 1960 and has removed elected governments four times in the past the warning was taken very seriusly.

The crisis has also been colored by two large-scale rallies by people who expressed their concern that  the secular nature of the Turkish Republic was in danger. These crowds also chanted anti-EU and anti-American slogans as well but  many were surprised with the large numbers being able to organize themselves and express their democratic concerns. In one sense, it was a healthy democratic expression and surely was a favorable step in the further development of our democracy. Let’s not forget in the 1970s those rallies were rather violent and disruptive.

That said, one needs to  acknowledge the AK Party could have  put an equal  if not more people out on rallies but has prudently refrained from such a step as it would even further heighten the tension.

Where are we now?

PM Erdogan announced his party’s willingness to go to early elections, most likely to take place on July 22. He also announced sweeping constitutional changes which would allow the President to be elected by the people. It is unclear whether these constitutional changes will be accepted and there will be two ballot boxes on July 22 but  Ankara is very confused with the multitude of  constitutional interpretations as to what can be done or not under the constitution.

If the ruling AK Party can convince (which appears to be the case for now) to go along the proposed constitutional changes then we will  go to the polls both for  early elections as well as the President.

Whether a popularly elected President will be more of a compromise candidate is unclear. Whether it will stabilize the regime or  will satisy the powerful military’s demands is also not clear.

One other concern with elections is the 10 percent threshold quota which limits representation in Parliament. It is highly likely that a good portion of the electorate may not be able to find representation in Parliament due to this quota. Also, there are those that such significant constitutional changes should not be rushed and should be left to the aftermath of the election. The AK Party feels otherwise.

Why does it matter?

This process matters because our democracy has been too much under the guardianship of the establishment. Turkey no longer can live under the shadow of military coups. Turkey has opened up to the world, is negotiating with the EU, has been growing an average 7 percent over the last 5 years and has attracted $ 50 billion FDO over the last 3 years. It is verily  part of the global economy but the political system still has to catch up.

I am providing a link to a piece I wrote today in the IHT on this.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/02/opinion/edsuat.php  

More to come…    

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Joshua Kucera has written an interesting piece on the emergence of a new U.S. strategic policy for the Black Sea. Of course, there are limitations for the U.S. in dealing with this region at a time when Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran are priorities, however, as this article suggests, once the U.S. has the opportunity it is likely to turn its attention to the Black Sea. This is good news for Turkey, which will most certainly play a key role in regional security.

. . . The United States doesn’t see a specific threat in the Black Sea region at present, but that is reason enough to expand the surveillance and monitoring of the area. . . Potential threats include the transport of weapons of mass destruction, drugs or terrorists. . . “It’s possible the threat is not great, but right now we don’t have the detection and surveillance capabilities to know if that’s the case”. . .

Read more at EurasiaNet.org.

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On Friday afternoon, the Turkish-Armenian writer, intellectual, and journalist Hrant Dink was assasinated. Thanks to an extensive network of public cameras the suspect’s identity was quickly identified. Yesterday, the suspect’s father identified his son from the multitude of TV screens showing the footage extensively and provided his name to the security forces. The 17-year-old suspect is an unemployed secondary school graduate from the Black Sea city of Trabzon. He was captured in another Black Sea city, Samsun, on his way to his native city. He was flown with a private airplane to Istanbul for interrogation. Hence, he was captured after 32 hours of the murder. Details of his motives, links and political orientation are unclear.

Tuesday there will be a big public ceremony for his funeral. Hundreds of thousands of people are expected to take part in the ceremony in Istanbul. Turkey continues to be shocked with the news of such a prominent intellectual’s death. During the last four years we thought Turkey had finally opened up, became a transparent country, and was on its way to consolidate the democratic gains it achieved. The murder of Hrant reminded all of us of the turbulent days in the 1970s  – an era we all thought was left behind.

There are some who interpret the murder as possibly derailing Turkey’s EU ambitions, others believe that we may see similar incidents to destabilize the country and oust the Muslim Democrat AKP. Who knows, but it is not too much of the realm that similar incidents may take place in the run-up to the presidential election.

If any good may come out of this, if one can put it this way, is the widespread solidarity and determination with which to counter such an atrocious act. Leftists, rightisits, secularists, Islamists, moderates or not, all corners of the Turkish media, government, opposition, and public condemned the murder in the strongest terms. I hope this incident will also finally provide the pressure to abolish Article 301 of the penal code, which provided the basis for this frenzy to develop in the first place.

All in all, we are all saddened and impoverished by what happened. This is a very sad day for Turks and Turkey. We are simply at a loss over what to say and how to explain what happened. My only hope is that his murder will remind all of us how urgent it is to further reform, democratize, and anchor Turkey into the West.

May Hrant’s soul rest in peace.

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