From Marek Matraszek, the Warsaw director of CEC Government Relations

The Shock of the Disaster

Poland is still trying to come to terms with the implications of the Smolensk air disaster, which at one stroke has destroyed a significant part of the Polish political elite. Apart from President Lech Kaczynski and his wife, the list of fatalities include several ministers, presidential officials, parliamentarians, the heads of all the Armed Forces and the head of the General Staff, a number of heads of other central institutions, as well as a selection of respected Poles such as the former head of the Polish government in exile. The delegation had been flying to Smolensk to take part in commemorations of the April 1940 massacre of 20,000 Polish officers and intellectuals by Soviet security forces. That 1940 massacre is seen as the destruction of Poland’s pre-War elite; now another elite has met its end in the same place, exactly 70 years later.

The details of the cause of the crash are still unclear, and eyewitnesses said that the aircraft had made several circuits of the Smolensk airfield and had been having trouble landing. On the fatal approach, its wingtip clipped trees just outside the airport and the plane immediately went into flames. The TU-154 aircraft had just recently undergone repairs in Belarus and had been fitted with the latest ILS landing system. However the airfield in Smolensk is not equipped with the appropriate equipment, and half an hour earlier a Russian plane had been refused permission to land because of fog and bad visibility.

Poland remains in deep shock, and this shock will continue in the days and weeks ahead. A week of national mourning has been declared.

With Immediate Political Implications…

The political implications of the disaster are potentially profound. In the short term, the Polish Constitution lays down that in the event of a the President’s death, his functions are taken on by the Speaker of Parliament, in this case Bronislaw Komorowski. Although presidential elections were planned for the beginning of October, now they will have to be announced within 14 days, and take place within 60 days of that announcement — so by June 20 at the latest.

The disaster has not only accelerated the presidential elections but also removed two of the contenders — President Lech Kaczynski had been planning to run for a second term as the candidate of the opposition Law and Justice party (PiS), and former Defence Minister Jerzy Szmajdzinski, who was the candidate of the left-wing Democratic Left Alliance (SLD), was also running. Both PiS and SLD will need to find replacement candidates and run an election in a two-month campaign period. It is unclear who the substitute candidates will be, or even whether there will be a substitute candidate in the case of the SLD, which may decide to back the center-left independent Andrzej Olechowski instead.

…and a Delicate Balance for Komorowski to Pursue…

Bronislaw Komorowski’s position as Speaker (and Acting President) is especially delicate. Under the Polish Constitution, the Acting President has all the prerogatives of an elected president except the ability to dissolve parliament. His rights therefore involve vetoing legislation and nominating the head of the General Staff and the heads of the armed forces. But it remains questionable whether Komorowski will either want to or be able to exercise these prerogatives without a democratic mandate, and especially as he himself in the official candidate of the ruling Civic Platform party for the Presidency. This is especially true of several controversial pieces of legislation that, it was known, Lech Kaczynski would either have vetoed or sent to the Constitutional Tribunal in the coming weeks and months. Komorowski will have to be careful that any decision he makes will not open him to the accusation that he is exceeding his authority or exploiting his accidental political position for campaign purposes.

The Government Remains Relatively Unaffected…

The impact on the Polish government will not be great, as among the dead were only two actual government ministers, Deputy Minister of Defence Stanislaw Komorowski (no relation to the acting President) and Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer, responsible for Russia policy. The death of Komorowski is the more damaging to the Defence Ministry, in that Komorowski was responsible for strategic issues of military relations with NATO and the United States, missile defense, and the implementation for the agreement to station Patriot batteries in Poland. Defence Minister Bogdan Klich will find it difficult to replace him.

…but the Armed Forces are the Hardest Hit…

The greatest blow is to the Polish armed forces, whose entire command — the Head of the General Staff and the top commanders of all the forces types — has been eliminated in one stroke at a time when Poland is facing military action in Afghanistan, is partaking in numerous NATO actions, and is also engaged in a range of bilateral military activities with the United States. There are also armed forces modernization programs afoot that require leadership and decisions. The armed forces are by nature hierarchical, and without leadership quickly become paralyzed. The constitution allows Komorowski to nominate new heads of the forces and General Staff, but it is unclear whether he will want to make use of these prerogatives without an electoral mandate. Conversely, he may cite overriding issues of national interest and national security issues and nominate new heads of forces, for new full terms, prior to the presidential elections.

…With Significant Implications for Filling Key Institutional Posts

There is a significant consequence of the death of Slawomir Skrzypek, the head of the National Bank of Poland. Skrzypek had been at loggerheads with both the Ministry of Finance over monetary policy and also recently with the Monetary Policy Council (RPP) over issues of passing bank reserves to the Finance Ministry to alleviate the budget deficit. Skrzypek’s death will allow the government to impose a more pliant National Bank head, although it is not clear if Acting President Komorowski will use his power to propose a candidate to parliament prior to the elections.

The deaths of key heads of central state institutions — apart from the head of National Bank, the Human Rights Ombudsman (Janusz Kochanowski) and the head of the National Remembrance Institute (Janusz Kurtyka) also perished — afford the ruling Civic Platform Party (PO) the opportunity to push through parliament replacements that will be much more politically loyal to the PO, since the disaster victims were nominees of the previous parliament and much more politically identified with the opposition PiS party. If PO wins the presidential elections, and then local elections in the fall, it will in effect have established complete and total dominance of the Polish political and institutional landscape.

The Law and Justice Party May Suffer Heavily…

The impact on the Polish political parties will be significant. The greatest instability may arise in the opposition Law and Justice party, who had been looking to Lech Kaczynski to rescue their electoral fortunes through a reasonable (if not victorious) performance in the presidential elections. Failure to find a credible candidate may well be a final blow to the party’s confidence. Also, the disaster killed a range of PiS parliamentarians, many of whom were party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s close colleagues — such as right-hand man Przemyslaw Gosiewski — or represented the “new wave” of party leaders, especially younger women. Bereft of many of its leadership, the party’s cohesion may suffer. The impact on Jaroslaw Kaczynski himself may be significant — he was very close to his brother, and the latter’s death comes at a time when their elderly mother is fighting for her health in a Warsaw hospital. Many question if the death and illness of the two closest people to Jaroslaw Kaczynski will not finally end his enthusiasm for the political game.

…but Civic Platform Needs Also to Exercise Caution…

The implications for the ruling Civic Platform Party are also significant. There were few PO politicians among the disaster victims, and thus far PM Donald Tusk has comported himself well in the crisis. Acting President Komorowski will have to balance his role as official PO candidate for the presidential elections with a need to stay above the political fray at a time of national mourning. More intriguing, however, is the fact that Kaczynski’s death undermines one of the driving forces of the PO presidential campaign — and indeed PO identity itself — which was the removal of Lech Kaczynski from office.   It was publicly expressed disdain of Kaczynski that was the rallying call for the PO presidential campaign, and in the party itself were several politicians (Janusz Palikot, Stefan Niesiolowski) who had made a career bashing Lech Kaczynski. Kaczynski is now dead, and to attack him or his legacy is now politically impossible as it would be decried as disrespectful. With that, and PiS being neutered, what holds PO together? The lack of a solid core identity to PO may make itself felt fairly quickly, probably after the campaign, and a long, slow process of political decomposition may well begin.

… as does the SLD.

As far as the opposition SLD is concerned, the death of its presidential candidate Jerzy Szmajdzinski (who was on the flight in his capacity as Deputy Speaker of parliament) will be a significant blow. He had not been performing well in the polls, but his candidacy was the only hope of a party already in the political doldrums. He himself had been a compromise candidate between the SLD’s internal warring factions. It remains to be seen if another candidate can emerge in the short time available, or if the SLD will back the center-left independent Andrzej Olechowski. Though that, too, would risk the party’s marginalization.

In the presidential race, the fortunes of Polish Peasant Party (PSL) leader Waldemar Pawlak (the current deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy) may improve. Kaczynski would have competed for the rural vote with Pawlak, and Pawlak may now emerge as more of a heavyweight contender in Kaczynski’s absence.

The Long Term May Bring Deeper Changes

Finally, it should be noted that the tragedy may temper a political scene that over the last two years had become increasingly unpleasant and hate-filled. Lech Kaczynski had unfairly become a bogeyman to the government and ruling party, and the level of inter-party invective had reached disgraceful proportions. This cathartic disaster may usher in a short period of some more reflective politics, commencing with the presidential campaign itself, and perhaps migrating to a more congenial and thoughtful political culture in general. Yet, in Poland, that is an optimistic scenario that few expect to hold for more than a relatively short period of time.

In conclusion, at first glance it sees that this disaster may result — in the most unexpected and tragic way — in a short-term strengthening of the Civic Platform on the political scene. If Tusk and Komorowski act as they should, above politics, and if Law and Justice disintegrates in the aftermath of the disaster, bereft of leadership and hope, the Polish political scene will be dominated by the Civic Platform and its political nominees in central institutions for years to come. Conversely, the death of President Kaczynski might yet generate completely the opposite result. The grief over Lech Kaczynski’s death shows there is a latent respect and appetite for what he stood for — decency, patriotism, a sense of social justice. If Jaroslaw Kaczynski takes this opportunity to retire from the immediate leadership of PiS and open up the party to younger and alternative leaders, and re-project PiS as the party of national unity with real beliefs, PiS may yet retake the political high ground from a rudderless PO.

But those are questions that will not be answered in the next few days or weeks. First, Poland must grieve.

Note: This piece has been updated by the author.

MAIN DISASTER VICTIMS

PRESIDENT LECH KACZYŃSKI

MARIA KACZYŃSKA, President Kaczynski’s wife

RYSZARD KACZOROWSKI, last Polish President-in-Exile

KRZYSZTOF PUTRA, Deputy Speaker of Parliament

KRYSTYNA BOCHENEK, Deputy Speaker of Parliament

JERZY SZMAJDZIŃSKI, Deputy Speaker of Parliament

WŁADYSŁAW STASIAK, Head of Presidential Chancellery

ALEKSANDER SZCZYGŁO, Head of National Security Office

PAWEŁ WYPYCH, Secretary of State in Presidential Chancellery

STANISŁAW JERZY KOMOROWSKI, Deputy Minister of Defence

TOMASZ MERTA, Deputy Minister of Culture

MACIEJ PŁAŻYŃSKI, Former Speaker of Parliament, head of Poles Abroad Association

GEN. FRANCISZEK GÄ„GOR, Head of General Staff

GEN. ANDRZEJ BŁASIK, Head of Air Force

GEN. TADEUSZ BUK, Head of Land Army

GEN. WOJCIECH POTASIŃSKI, Head of Special Forces

VICEADMIRAL ANDRZEJ KARWETA, Commander of Navy

GEN. BRONISŁAW KWIATKOWSKI, Head of Operational Command

GEN. KAZIMIERZ GILARSKI, Head of Warsaw Garrison

MARIUSZ HANDZLIK, Undersecretary of State in Presidential Chancellery

ANDRZEJ KREMER, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs

PIOTR NUROWSKI, Head of Polish Olympic Committee

JANUSZ KOCHANOWSKI, Civic Rights Ombudsman

SŁAWOMIR SKRZYPEK, Head of National Bank of Poland

JANUSZ KURTYKA, Head of National Remembrance Institute

JANUSZ KRUPSKI, Head of Veterans Office

GRZEGORZ DOLNIAK MP

LESZEK DEPTUŁA MP

GRAŻYNA GĘSICKA MP

PRZEMYSŁAW GOSIEWSKI MP

ZBIGNIEW WASSERMANN MP

SEBASTIAN KARPINIUK MP

IZABELA JARUGA-NOWACKA MP

ALEKSANDRA NATALLI-ÅšWIAT MP

ARKADIUSZ RYBICKI MP

JOLANTA SZYMANEK-DERESZ MP

WIESŁAW WODA MP

EDWARD WOJTAS MP

Senator JANINA FETLIŃSKA

Senator STANISŁAW ZAJĄC

Gen TADEUSZ PŁOSKI, Head Military Chaplain

Father ROMAN INDRZEJCZYK, Chaplain to the President

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