WASHINGTON –  A transatlantic delegation led by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter visited the Koreas this week in an attempt to ease tensions on the peninsula and draw attention to chronic food shortages in the North.   Having failed to secure meetings with both Kim Jong-Il and President Lee Myung-Bak, many in South Korea have come to view Carter’s third visit to Pyongyang as a failure.   Prior to the trip, Carter provoked further controversy following his accusation that South Korea’s decision to halt humanitarian aid to the North was a “human rights violation,” partly contributing to food shortages there.    But beyond the predictable criticism of this recent North Korea news, two important developments have surfaced that the United States and South Korea ought now to pay careful attention.

First, Carter reported that Kim Jong-il is now prepared for “a summit meeting with South Korean President Lee Myung-bak at any time, [to] discuss any issue between the two heads of state.”   With South Korea’s insistence that talks must be preceded by an apology for the recent shelling of Yeonpyeong island and the sinking of the Cheonan, on the surface this might seem like another dead end.  After all, North Korea has been trying (and failing) to rekindle dialogue on many levels with the South since early in the year.  But this time, North Korea used Carter’s trip to transmit a second message to both Seoul and Washington – that it now expressed “deep regret for the loss of life on the Cheonan and those on Yeonpyeong Island.”  However, the statement fell short of an apology for either incident, with Pyongyang continuing to claim no involvement in the sinking of the Cheonan and labeling the shelling of Yeonpyeong as a legitimate act of self-defense.  Nevertheless, these developments must not be overlooked.

Throughout North Korea’s recent charm offensive, Seoul continued to insist that Pyongyang would have to change direction if it wanted to secure talks, reminding the world on the anniversary of the sinking of the Cheonan that the DPRK was yet to express any regret over its provocations.  Washington, on the same page as its ally, has consistently maintained that inter-Korean relations must improve before there can be resumption of the Six Party Talks – a position increasingly also visible in Beijing’s strategy.  With North Korea’s expression of regret and its apparent eagerness to engage in high-level dialogue, it is questionable whether Seoul can now continue to demand a formal apology when signs suggest that Washington and China are increasingly eager to rejuvenate nuclear talks.

There is a precedent to regarding regret as apology in Seoul.  Two years ago, a sudden discharge of water from a North Korean damn caused the deaths of six South Koreans downstream.  Initially many in South Korea interpreted the disaster as a deliberate provocation, taking place just months after a second North Korean nuclear test and series of missile tests.  Although initially silent on the matter, after South Korea’s parliament speaker Kim Hyong-O called for a “sincere apology” from the North, Pyongyang eventually responded through a statement of regret, not too dissimilar to the one communicated this week by Carter.  Cognizant of North Korea’s track record in rarely issuing apologies, the following month a South Korean Unification Minister told reporters, “The government considers the position expressed by the North as an apology.”

South Korea’s Lee Myung-Bak is undoubtedly in a difficult position.  Under his presidency inter-Korean relations have spiraled downward, his country has suffered two major tragedies, and North Korea’s nuclear program has continued to develop.  In this environment, it is not surprising that conservative voices dominate the debate in both government and the columns of newspapers.  But while it is understandably a risky move for Lee Myung-Bak to reach out to North Korea, recent events should not be used as an excuse to continue rejecting dialogue infinitely.

The group who visited Pyongyang, comprising former U.S. President Carter, former Norwegian Prime Minister Gro Harlem Brundtland, former Finish President Martti Ahtisaari and former Irish President Mary Robinson, yield significant international influence.  Their request that South Korea now accepts North Korea’s offer of a summit should be seriously considered by Seoul, and encouraged by Washington.

Should inter-Korean dialogue resume, it is unclear where it might lead.  North Korea has had a history of staging provocations and, in essence, blackmailing aid from donors in Seoul and Washington in return for security and partial freezes of its nuclear program.  But at the same time, it is clear that “jaw-jaw is better than war-war.”  Although dialogue and aid might be seen to “prolong” the life of the Pyongyang regime, ignoring the problem will not make it go away. Left ignored, North Korea can—at little cost—continue to raise the stakes for all involved.

Jimmy Carter’s trip to Pyongyang in 1994 helped avert a major conflict on the peninsula and set the seeds for the Agreed Framework, a policy that calmed relations and froze the North’s nuclear program for many years.  South Korea would do well to embrace The Elders’ advice and agree to a summit with the North.  Labeling their work as unwelcome interference or worse, evidence of sycophancy toward Kim Jong Il, is not befitting the distinguished careers of these former heads of state.  As Carter blogged this week in reference to Kim Jong Il’s 2000 summit with Kim Dae Jung, “this kind of people-to-people contact is vital in trying to encourage dialogue and build sufficient confidence and trust between former enemies to allow them to reach lasting peace.”

(Photo by John Pavelka)

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In March of 2010, GMF coordinated a MENA Fellowship pilot program, modeled on the Marshall Memorial Fellowship, this two-week long exchange program provided an opportunity for 24 emerging leaders from North America, Europe,the Middle East and North Africa to explore media, culture, politics, business, governmental institutions, civil society, and religion in one another’s countries. GMF operated the pilot in partnership with the British Council; the League of Arab States; the Islamic Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar; and the United Nations Alliance of Civilizations. When our group of 12 European and North American Fellows visited Cairo, they met with several bloggers, journalists, lawyers, academics and other professionals. In the next few days, we shall be posting articles authored by some of our Egyptian Fellows and other contacts related to the MENA Fellowship program.

One of our coordinators in Cairo is the renowned Egyptian blogger, Mahmoud Salem, an independent voice, Mahmoud is involved in the youth movement, he is monitoring and commenting on current events in Egypt. Although he was arrested this afternoon, we are happy to report that Mahmoud Salem has been now released. His blog continues to be suspended.

Egypt, Right Now!

I don’t know how to start writing this. I have been battling fatigue for not sleeping properly for the past 10 days, moving from one’s friend house to another friend’s house, almost never spending a night in my home, facing a very well funded and well organized ruthless regime that views me as nothing but an annoying bug that its time to squash will come. The situation here is bleak to say the least.

It didn’t start out that way. On Tuesday Jan 25 it all started peacefully, and against all odds, we succeeded to gather hundreds of thousands and get them into Tahrir Square, despite being attacked by Anti-Riot Police who are using sticks, tear gas and rubber bullets against us. We managed to break all of their barricades and situated ourselves in Tahrir. The government responded by shutting down all cell communication in Tahrir square, a move which purpose was understood later when after midnight they went in with all of their might and attacked the protesters and evacuated the Square. The next day we were back at it again, and the day after. Then came Friday and we braved their communication blackout, their thugs, their tear gas and their bullets and we retook the square. We have been fighting to keep it ever since.

That night the government announced a military curfew, which kept getting shorter by the day, until it became from 8 am to 3 pm. People couldn’t go to work, gas was running out quickly and so were essential goods and money, since the banks were not allowed to operate and people were not able to collect their salary. The internet continued to be blocked, which affected all businesses in Egypt and will cause an economic meltdown the moment they allow the banks to operate again. We were being collectively punished for daring to say that we deserve democracy and rights, and to keep it up, they withdrew the police, and then sent them out dressed as civilians to terrorize our neighborhoods. I was shot at twice that day, one of which with a semi-automatic by a dude in a car that we the people took joy in pummeling. The government announced that all prisons were breached, and that the prisoners somehow managed to get weapons and do nothing but randomly attack people. One day we had organized thugs in uniforms firing at us and the next day they disappeared and were replaced by organized thugs without uniforms firing at us. Somehow the people never made the connection.

Despite it all, we braved it. We believed we are doing what’s right and were encouraged by all those around us who couldn’t believe what was happening to their country. What he did galvanized the people, and on Tuesday, despite shutting down all major roads leading into Cairo, we managed to get over 2 million protesters in Cairo alone and 3 million all over Egypt to come out and demand Mubarak’s departure. Those are people who stood up to the regime’s ruthlessness and anger and declared that they were free, and were refusing to live in the Mubarak dictatorship for one more day. That night, he showed up on TV, and gave a very emotional speech about how he intends to step down at the end of his term and how he wants to die in Egypt, the country he loved and served. To me, and to everyone else at the protests this wasn’t nearly enough, for we wanted him gone now. Others started asking that we give him a chance, and that change takes time and other such poppycock. Hell, some people and family members cried when they saw his speech. People felt sorry for him for failing to be our dictator for the rest of his life and inheriting us to his Son. It was an amalgam of Stockholm syndrome coupled with slave mentality in a malevolent combination that we never saw before. And the Regime capitalized on it today.

Today, they brought back the internet, and started having people calling on TV and writing on facebook on how they support Mubarak and his call for stability and peacefull change in 8 months. They hung on to the words of the newly appointed government would never harm the protesters, whom they believe to be good patriotic youth who have a few bad apples amongst them. We started getting calls asking people to stop protesting because “we got what we wanted” and “we need the country to start working again”. People were complaining that they miss their lives. That they miss going out at night, and ordering Home Delivery. That they need us to stop so they can resume whatever existence they had before all of this. All was forgiven, the past week never happened and it’s time for Unity under Mubarak’s rule right now.

To all of those people I say: NEVER! I am sorry that your lives and businesses are disrupted, but this wasn’t caused by the Protesters. The Protesters aren’t the ones who shut down the internet that has paralyzed your businesses and banks: The government did. The Protesters weren’t the ones who initiated the military curfew that limited your movement and allowed goods to disappear off market shelves and gas to disappear: The government did. The Protesters weren’t the ones who ordered the police to withdraw and claimed the prisons were breached and unleashed thugs that terrorized your neighborhoods: The government did. The same government that you wish to give a second chance to, as if 30 years of dictatorship and utter failure in every sector of government wasn’t enough for you. The Slaves were ready to forgive their master, and blame his cruelty on those who dared to defy him in order to ensure a better Egypt for all of its citizens and their children. After all, he gave us his word, and it’s not like he ever broke his promises for reform before or anything.

Then Mubarak made his move and showed them what useful idiots they all were.

You watched on TV as “Pro-Mubarak Protesters” – thugs who were paid money by NDP members by admission of High NDP officials- started attacking the peaceful unarmed protesters in Tahrir square. They attacked them with sticks, threw stones at them, brought in men riding horses and camels- in what must be the most surreal scene ever shown on TV- and carrying whips to beat up the protesters. And then the Bullets started getting fired and Molotov cocktails started getting thrown at the Anti-Mubarak Protesters as the Army standing idly by, allowing it all to happen and not doing anything about it. Dozens were killed, hundreds injured, and there was no help sent by ambulances. The Police never showed up to stop those attacking because the ones who were captured by the Anti-mubarak people had police ID’s on them. They were the police and they were there to shoot and kill people and even tried to set the Egyptian Museum on Fire. The Aim was clear: Use the clashes as pretext to ban such demonstrations under pretexts of concern for public safety and order, and to prevent disunity amongst the people of Egypt. But their plans ultimately failed, by those resilient brave souls who wouldn’t give up the ground they freed of Egypt, no matter how many live bullets or firebombs were hurled at them. They know, like we all do, that this regime no longer cares to put on a moderate mask. That they have shown their true nature. That Mubarak will never step down, and that he would rather burn Egypt to the ground than even contemplate that possibility.

In the meantime, State-owned and affiliated TV channels were showing coverage of Peaceful Mubarak Protests all over Egypt and showing recorded footage of Tahrir Square protest from the night before and claiming it’s the situation there at the moment. Hundreds of calls by public figures and actors started calling the channels saying that they are with Mubarak, and that he is our Father and we should support him on the road to democracy. A veiled girl with a blurred face went on Mehwer TV claiming to have received funding by Americans to go to the US and took courses on how to bring down the Egyptian government through protests which were taught by Jews. She claimed that AlJazeera is lying, and that the only people in Tahrir square now were Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas. State TV started issuing statements on how the people arrested Israelis all over Cairo engaged in creating mayhem and causing chaos. For those of you who are counting this is an American-Israeli-Qatari-Muslim Brotherhood-Iranian-Hamas conspiracy. Imagine that. And MANY PEOPLE BOUGHT IT. I recall telling a friend of mine that the only good thing about what happened today was that it made clear to us who were the idiots amongst our friends. Now we know.

Now, just in case this isn’t clear: This protest is not one made or sustained by the Muslim Brotherhood, it’s one that had people from all social classes and religious background in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood only showed up on Tuesday, and even then they were not the majority of people there by a long shot. We tolerated them there since we won’t say no to fellow Egyptians who wanted to stand with us, but neither the Muslims Brotherhood not any of the Opposition leaders have the ability to turn out one tenth of the numbers of Protesters that were in Tahrir on Tuesday. This is a revolution without leaders. Three Million individuals choosing hope instead of fear and braving death on hourly basis to keep their dream of freedom alive. Imagine that.

The End is near. I have no illusions about this regime or its leader, and how he will pluck us and hunt us down one by one till we are over and done with and 8 months from now will pay people to stage fake protests urging him not to leave power, and he will stay “because he has to acquiesce to the voice of the people”. This is a losing battle and they have all the weapons, but we will continue fighting until we can’t. I am heading to Tahrir right now with supplies for the hundreds injured, knowing that today the attacks will intensify, because they can’t allow us to stay there come Friday, which is supposed to be the game changer. We are bringing everybody out, and we will refuse to be anything else than peaceful. If you are in Egypt, I am calling on all of you to head down to Tahrir today and Friday. It is imperative to show them that the battle for the soul of Egypt isn’t over and done with. I am calling you to bring your friends, to bring medical supplies, to go and see what Mubarak’s guarantees look like in real life. Egypt needs you. Be Heroes.

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