BRUSSELS — After a 20-month stalemate, direct Middle East peace talks are about to resume this week with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, Jordanian King Abdullah, and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak meeting in Washington at the invitation of the Obama administration. The talks are a welcome opportunity to set the peace process back on track, but both parties face serious challenges that will need to be overcome if a positive outcome is to materialize.

On the Israeli side, Netanyahu is confronted with a crucial decision on whether to end the 10-month freeze on the construction of settlements in the West Bank, which he announced last November. The moratorium, which expires on September 26, was announced originally in response to strong American pressure, as the Obama administration felt that the continuing construction undermined any prospect for future peace talks. Many Israelis now, including Netanyahu’s coalition partners, are hoping to end the freeze and enable the resumption of construction within settlements blocks, in anticipation of territorial swaps that could be negotiated with the Palestinians.

Although Netanyahu has emphasized that there are no preconditions for the planned talks, Abbas has indicated that a failure to extend the settlement freeze could undermine the negotiations. It remains in Israeli interests to continue its warming of relations with the Obama administration and maintain the momentum of the U.S.-sponsored effort. Netanyahu is likely therefore to extend the freeze on settlement constructions or aim for a compromise solution that might be acceptable to the White House, the Palestinians, and his own coalition government.

On the Palestinian side, recent events underscore the threat posed by Hamas, not just to Israel, but also to the stability of the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. Hamas leaders criticized Abbas for agreeing to participate in the Washington summit and cancelled a scheduled reconciliation meeting with his party, Fatah. They also called upon the Palestinian population in the West Bank to revolt against the resumption of peace talks. These moves closely followed a wave of arrests by the Palestinian authorities of Hamas activists. However, it still remains to be seen how successful Hamas will be in its attempts to sabotage the talks through its provocations.

The peace process is also threatened by regional forces. Political circumstances in the Middle East mean that the talks begin with the region in a state of precarious equilibrium. Actors supported or orchestrated by Iran could take advantage of this opportunity to return Israel, Palestine, and Lebanon to a vicious cycle of violence. This could divert attention from Tehran’s nuclear program and domestic Lebanese politics — which are expected to be shaken by the verdict of an international tribunal investigating the murder of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. If Israel and the Palestinian Authority want to prevent the talks from being held hostage — yet again — by the activism of Hamas and Hezbollah, they ought to identify damage control mechanisms and preventive measures that would help surmount possible provocations.

Finally, assuming the two parties overcome both the settlements issue and possible provocations, and that the talks yield a draft agreement, the status of the Palestinian population living under a Hamas regime in Gaza will still remain unsolved. The resulting complications may be aggravated by widening divisions between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, which in turn might further consolidate Hamas’s power in Gaza. Only a frank and realistic discussion on all these topics, and a courageous decision in principle by the negotiating parties to pursue a successful outcome, can enable them to overcome what will undoubtedly be a bumpy road ahead.

Shirley Salzman is a Legacy Heritage Fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

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