Election? No, thanks.
WASHINGTON — Noting the speed with which political fortunes can change, former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once remarked: “A week is a long time in politics”. So imagine how Gordon Brown must be feeling after enduring three weeks of political to-and-fro, that have seen him under considerable pressure from buoyant opponents. Three weeks ago, I wrote that the rough and tumble of daily politics had not challenged Brown’s honeymoon with the voters. It has now.
When Brown took over from Tony Blair, he immediately set out presenting a new image of leadership to the electorate. He talked of humility, of his strong “moral compass”, of handing power from Downing Street to Parliament, of listening and consensus. A series of moderate crises were handled with a deft touch, reinforcing the impression of straight-talking, competent leadership without glitz or spin. A poster campaign captured the Brown image brilliantly: “Not flash, just Gordon”.
This looked like the first phase of a well thought-out strategy to renew the Labour government after 10 years of power. Having defined Brown’s image, the next stage, surely, would be to set out his vision for Britain, possibly culminating in an election next spring where Brown would secure his personal mandate from the electorate.
If that was the plan, something went badly wrong. And perversely, it seems to result from the somewhat startling warmth with which Brown appeared to be greeted as the new Prime Minister. Opinion polls showed Labour’s lead over the opposition Conservatives widening, suggesting Brown might win an increased majority if an election were held. Rumors of an impending election began to circulate, with the flames perhaps fanned by the thought that it would panic the Conservatives, and expose more sharply their internal divisions. By the time the Conservatives began their annual conference, election fever risked passing the point of no return.
The Conservatives, however, clearly hadn’t read the script. Fear of an election that they were unlikely to win helped unite them, and leader David Cameron’s speech to the conference received considerable praise; better still, they spelled out several policy proposals on tax that caught voters’ imagination. So much so, in fact, that polling, particularly in swing areas, suggested the government faced a considerable challenge. Within a few days, election expectations were quashed as Brown chose to rule out an election, not just this year, but almost certainly until 2009. The Conservatives responded by taunting Brown with the book on courage he had published earlier this year.
And almost immediately, the government announced tax policies in the same areas as those that had garnered the Conservatives such attention. However long those plans had been in the making, politics now left them exposed to the charge that the Conservatives were setting the political agenda. The shadow Chancellor (Finance Minister) George Osborne was not slow to make this point in Parliament: “[Gordon Brown] talks about setting out his vision of the country - but he has to wait for us to tell him what it is.”
Despite this turn-around, the tide has not permanently shifted in anyone’s favor. One recent poll suggests Brown remains voters preferred choice as Prime Minister. The Conservatives have, however, succeeded in delaying what would have been a tough election, and given the impression of leading the political debate in some areas. Cameron may also have taken several steps towards developing his party’s position and narrative. But that can also help Brown – one side-effect of this episode is that the government have teased out more of what the next Conservative election manifesto will look like. He also now has time to work with. And if a week is a long time in politics, just think how significant the next 18 months could be.
Only one thing is certain: British politics just became very interesting indeed.