Transatlantic Trends: NATO and the EU — Partners or Rivals?
WASHINGTON — Perhaps the crucial institutional question in the transatlantic relationship has concerned the roles of the European Union and NATO in providing for European security. How much of the transatlantic relationship should be managed through the U.S.–EU prism, how much through NATO, and how much on a bilateral or “coalitions of the willing” approach?
The Transatlantic Trends survey reveals broad public support in both Europe and the United States for the proposition that the EU should take on greater responsibility in dealing with international threats. Europeans, however, are divided over whether this should be done in partnership with the U.S. ( the majority view) or independently of the U.S. (a substantial minority at 43%), While the French are, unsurprisingly, in the lead of those publics favoring an independent role, both the more Atlanticist Germans and Britons have substantial contingents favoring an independent EU role. So the major lesson of the Iraq war drawn by leaders – namely that Europe cannot serve as a counterweight to the U.S. – European publics are less sure and more ambivalent. What seems clear is that Europeans understand that a more effective EU is needed to carry any weight with the U.S. The soft power view of the EU is also the preferred one of most Europeans.
Alongside this view of the EU is the decline of the image of NATO in Europe. In the big three European NATO countries – the U.K., France, and Germany – the view that NATO is essential has declined precipitously, especially in Germany and the U.K. This decline has occurred at a time when concerns about terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism, and the direction Russia is headed have all grown.
The EU is gaining credibility with its publics in the peacekeeping, humanitarian intervention, and reconstruction areas, but does not have much credibility in the harder uses of military power in cases like Afghanistan. This means that NATO will remain the main security institution in Europe for at least the next decade but also that the U.S. will look to the EU increasingly as an institutional partner in the broad soft power areas of international relations.
The devaluation of NATO by the Bush Administration is clearly a big reason for the drop in confidence in the alliance. Given the new relevance of the alliance in dealing with the new threats facing Europe and its expanding role in crisis management and stabilization, it is clear that a new strategic concept that reflects the resolve of a new American administration to re-engage in NATO will be needed to re-establish the centrality of NATO to European security.