Transatlantic Trends: What new democracies share, and don’t
BRATISLAVA — Transatlantic Trends 2007 has once again held up a mirror to the views of the citizens of the United States and 12 European countries on a wide range of global issues. Many comparative views are possible, but I am highlighting just two of them: what links the four Central and East European (CEE) countries surveyed (Bulgaria, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia) together and how do they differ?
Although these countries are linked by a common start of political and economic transformation and by more or less recent integration into the EU (Slovakia and Poland in 2004; Romania and Bulgaria in 2007) and NATO (Poland in 1999; Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia in 2004), it seems that attitudes on crucial international issues are being formed by deeper cultural and historical factors. Which findings document this fact most markedly?
According to the data, Romanians are the strongest Atlanticists — they like the United States (67 degrees on a 100-point thermometer scale, compared with a lukewarm 49 degrees in Slovakia and 52 degrees in Bulgaria), and consider NATO essential for their country’s security (62% vis-à-vis 44% in Slovakia). As far as the U.S. leadership in world affairs and the approval of President Bush’s international policies are concerned, Romanians and Poles differ from Bulgarians and Slovaks. In general, and based on several indicators, the weakest “Atlanticist identity” can be observed in Slovakia, where the historical reasons (young state, short experience with own independent foreign policy) + smallness of the country are reinforced by the factors of current political representation whose rhetoric and activities – such as the withdrawal of troops from Iraq – weakens the citizens´ fragile commitment to the transatlantic partnership.
Attitudes toward Russia also show that the new democracies do not have a common viewpoint. Contrary to the European public, Slovaks, Bulgarians, and Romanians do express weaker concerns about recent development in Russia (only about a third of the citizens in these three countries are concerned about the weakening democracy in Russia). In contrast, the concerns of the Polish public are far above the EU average. For instance, 74% of Poles are concerned about Russia’s behaviour to its neighbours (the EU average is 59%), compared with 29% of Bulgarians and 35% of Slovaks! Despite historical experience, part of the so-called former Soviet block does not perceive Russia as a potential threat. Different from Poland, where historical experience with the expansionism of its Eastern neighbour goes back to the pre-Soviet era, the other three CEE countries surveyed have a certain “geopolitical indifference and unresponsiveness.”
However, the survey also points out a common feature of the new democracies, namely the lack of interest in politics! This part of Europe had the second-largest proportion of its citizens (after Turkey) who say they never talk about the politics, while the proportion of those who frequently discuss the politics is the smallest one. In Slovakia and Poland, there is the smallest proportion of those who say they persuade friends, relatives, or colleagues to share their views. The weaker interest in politics, especially international affairs, becomes evident in the high proportion of citizens’ ambiguous or “do not know” responses.
What is this all about? About the exhaustion of politics following the period when the transforming societies were too politicized? About the concentration on national problems resulting from too high costs of economic transformation? About the heritage of isolation behind the iron curtain and certain incompetence in foreign policy issues (most decisions were taken in Moscow)?
Certainly, all of these factors contribute to a general picture, and the change of people’s “insular mentality” is a matter for the next decades. The role of political leaders in this process is irreplaceable.
And finally, let’s approach the findings with self-irony and hyperbole. In today’s dangerous and too-politicized world, Slovakia, as well as some other CEE countries, offers an oasis of peace, no concerns, and … political ignorance. As Pavol Demeš, director of GMF’s Bratislava office suggested, Slovak travel agencies could attract their clients by a marketing slogan like: “Too tired of politics and global troubles? Do not hesitate and come to have a rest below the Tatras.”