Turkey and Transatlantic Trends: Between xenophobia and globalization
ISTANBUL — This year’s Transatlantic Trends survey contains some striking data on Turkey. Conversations about the findings here in Turkey suggest several key points.
First, over the last year, the survey shows Turks becoming markedly cooler toward the world. The trend is most striking in attitudes toward “Western” partners — the U.S., EU, and Israel — where the degree of warmth has declined by roughly 50 percent over the past year. But this cooling trend can be seen across the board, including attitudes toward Russia, Iran, and the Palestinians. A year of troubled internal politics in Turkey, a sense of insecurity driven by PKK violence and instability in Iraq, and growing disenchantment with the EU all play a role in mounting Turkish suspicion toward the international environment.
Second, Turks may be inward-looking this year, but at the same time, Turks seem to share very much the same concerns as their counterparts in Europe and the United States. Economic insecurity, global warming, and international terrorism (Turks certainly include PKK violence in this category) are all key threats according to Turkish respondents. Yet, as in Europe, views on how to address these problems, and the general approach to international affairs, differ substantially from American preferences. Turks, alongside Europeans, opt for “soft” over “hard” power instruments to address challenges from regional instability to a nuclearizing Iran.
Third, the surveys results raise some important questions about broader trends in Turkish society and politics. How can rising nationalism and xenophobia be reconciled with a demonstrably globalizing Turkey? Discussions with leaders and observers in Turkey suggest a few possibilities, and all may be at work on the Turkish scene. The nationalist discourse in the recent national election campaign surely plays some role. Many Turks are genuinely concerned about the implications of a more globalized economy and society (this is reflected in the tendency of Turkish respondents to see China as more of an economic threat than an opportunity). AKP’s victory in the elections suggests that if Turks are indeed becoming more xenophobic and inward-looking, they are not necessarily voting along those lines — AKP is widely seen as favoring a more globalized policy, and seeking closer ties to the U.S. and EU.
Turkey is clearly going through a period of reflection, transformation, and a good deal of suspicion and insecurity vis-a-vis international partners. Next year’s survey is likely to provided some important indication of the durability of these trends now that Turkey’s near-term political outlook is more settled.