Update on Turkish elections

The political impasse surrounding the presidential elections in Turkey continues. Following the Constitutional Court ruling, the AK Party unexpectedly stepped back, saying that it wants the newly formed government to elect the next president. However, upon the proposal of the opposition leader Baykal that the new president should be someone outside the parliament, PM Erdogan blamed Baykal for not being cooperative and decided to leave the last word to the public. If the people elect the new president, the new parliament will need to pass an urgent law allowing the election of the president by popular vote. It seems that, apart from forming the new government, this parliament is expected to assume many important roles, including deciding on how to elect the new president, whether to cross into Iraq, and how to continue accession negotiations with the European Union.

Parliamentary Elections

10 days to go.. 14 parties will enter the elections. Below is the list of those that are expected to make it over the electoral threshold of 10%. Though the list is in order of popularity, it is not easy to make a guess about the percentages because there isn’t a comprehensive opinion poll reflecting the possible results.

Justice and Development Party (AKP) Republican People’s Party (CHP) + Democratic Left Party (DSP) Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)

and those that might cross the threshold of 10% are:

Democrat Party (DP) Youth Party (GP) Independent candidates

For a synopsis of the campaigns and party politics, let me start by quoting Cuneyt Ulsever, a prominent Turkish journalist: “We live in a country where the party in government organizes much more rallies than the opposition parties.” AKP has put great effort into the local party organizations and candidates and is very successful in reaching people. While CHP’s website mainly features the pictures and speeches of its chairman, AKP posted the majority of its candidates’ mobile numbers on the web. In addition to presenting the list of its accomplishments during the last 5 years, AKP has been quite successful in turning out the debate over presidential elections to its own advantage. It brings up the issue in a way that conservative Turks feel offended as Gul’s candidacy was precluded because his wife is wearing Islamic headscarf. However, AKP is highly blamed by the public and the opposition leaders for not being able to deal successfully with PKK terrorism and for failing to communicate effectively with the EU and the United States.

The main opposition party CHP is the stronghold of secularism. Those who see AKP as a threat to the secular republic will vote for the CHP because they believe they do not have an alternative. Yet, most of these people assert “I will vote for the CHP despite Baykal.” Those who lost confidence in CHP argue that the party has lost its traditional social democrat line.

Ultra-nationalist MHP was one of the parties of the coalition government from 1999-2002 but lost popularity because of unsuccessful policies. However, with the upsurge of PKK terrorism and growing resentment with the EU accession process, MHP has regained popularity. One of the controversial propositions the party leader made was that they would execute PKK head Ocalan, who is currently imprisoned.

GP has a rather radical rhetoric, especially in the areas of economics and external relations. According to GP, Turkey should unilaterally renounce its candidacy for the EU. GP leader Cem Uzan and his family were accused of being involved in a large-scale fraud.

Independent candidates, especially from southeastern Turkey, have a chance of getting into parliament as there is not any party that deliberately addresses the interests of Turks of Kurdish origin.

DP is the main center-right party to enter the elections. I think DP will be the choice for those who consider themselves as “secularists” but also find Baykal unsympathetic and destructive for Ataturk’s party.

An important analysis I recall from my university years is that trying to understand Turkey in terms of classical left-right division can be misleading. For an in-depth understanding, we should look into the cleavage between “center” (being the state ideology mainly dominated by secularism) and “periphery” (representing the conservative population). That said, I think debating whether AKP is moving left or CHP is moving toward the center is pointless. What we should consider is whether the upcoming elections will be able to build a bridge between center and periphery and put an end to the polarization of the Turkish society.