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GMF Blog: Expert Commentary

Sarkozy got “re-elected”

The first round of French parliamentary elections took place yesterday:

  • an abstention rate close to 40%, which means the lowest participation since 1958 for this kind of election. So apparently, people did not feel as concerned by this vote as they did early May when they elected Nicolas Sarkozy as new President with a 85% turn out. This could mean two things, at least: the “deal was done” with Sarkozy being elected with an overwhelming majority;  knowing he would very likely get an other blessing at the parliamentary elections, abstention was seen as less of an issue in voters eyes; people’s feeling that the Parliament plays such a limited role in the French presidential system anyway, that voting or not would not make such a difference.
  • the right (UMP+their centrist allies) got 42,23%of the votes, the Socialist party and its allies got 26,46%. Francois Bayrou (remember he got 18% of the votes in the first round of presidential election) party only got 7,73% of the votes, the extreme right 6,04% and the greens 3,41%. So it is a major defeat for the Socialists and other leftist forces.

Given the kind of electoral system we have in France, the UMP (Sarkozy’s party) and the Socialist party will very likely monopolize all seats within the parliament. So the system will even be more “presidential” and bi-polar than ever. Even if we have to wait until next Sunday for final results, current projections give from 380 to 470 seats to the conservative camp out of a total of 577.

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