Light at the End of the Transatlantic Tunnel?
The beginning of the 21st century has been bad for transatlantic relations. The past seven years have been among the worst since World War II. Yet, there are now signs that this time of troubles may be drawing to a close. The wheels of history are again opening a window of opportunity that could bring the U.S. and Europe closer together.
What has changed? The first and most obvious is the changing of the guard taking place in Europe. The key European leaders involved in the Iraq debacle are now gone. The first to depart was German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. It is hard to find anyone who really misses him. While the former Chancellor enjoys his lucrative lobbyist salary from a Gazprom subsidiary, Chancellor Merkel and her diplomats are still contending with the consequences of his policies.
But now she is no longer alone in trying to rebuild bridges across the Atlantic. Nicolas Sarkozy’s electoral victory portends a fresh start for both Europe and the transatlantic relationship as well. For the first time in decades, we have a French President who has a normal and non-ideological view of the United States. Sarkozy’s decision to appoint Bernard Kouchner – perhaps the closest thing in France to a liberal hawk – as Foreign Minister is a bold one.
The chance to remake the U.S.-French relationship is real Some of us remember Jacques Chirac’s short-lived flirt with Washington in the mid-1990s, which came within one sentence of bringing Paris back fully to NATO. To be sure, that one sentence masked some important differences. No one knows this better than Chirac’s then negotiator, Jean-David Levitte, who has returned to Paris from his ambassador post in Washington to head a newly created National Security Council. Nonetheless, rarely have the stars been in a better alignment for relations to improve between Washington and Paris.
Then there is Tony Blair’s departure in London and the onset of Gordon Brown. Many believe that Brown will try to distance himself from the United States. In reality, Brown’s arrival may also end up being good news for trans-Atlantic relations — if for no other reason than Tony Blair had become a spent force. Brown is even more knowledgeable about the United States and knows that a close relationship with Washington is compulsory for any British Prime Minister. And while the need to show he is different than Blair is real, it would be folly for Brown to distance himself from Washington precisely as Paris moves closer and the Bush era draws to a close. Brown also knows that he will gain little with Democrats in the U.S. if he distances himself at this juncture. So his own interest lies in reviving the trans-Atlantic relationship, not walking away from it.
Beyond these leadership changes, there are additional forces nudging America and Europe back together. The world is becoming a more dangerous place. Wherever one looks, the West – if one dares to still use that old-fashioned word – seems to be on its heels or losing ground. In Iraq, the United States is fighting what often seems like a losing battle. In Afghanistan, NATO appears caught in a stalemate. Barring a pleasant surprise, it is doubtful our current course on Iran will prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons. The rise of a authoritarian and assertive Russia pursing its own version of democratic rollback along its borders, backed up by its energy clout, threatens Western interest on Europe’s periphery. On each of these issues, the lack of a unified West able to bring its weight to bear in a positive fashion is hurting the U.S. and Europe.
There is also a growing awkwardness about our public estrangement on both sides of the Atlantic. America and Europe are like the couple who, having had a tremendous row, both wake up a bit embarrassed about their behavior and look for ways to make amends without admitting fault. In the United States, nearly all the Presidential candidates for 2008 are campaigning on the need to better relations with allies and improve America’s image abroad. In private, many European leaders admit that relations have been on the mend during President Bush’s second term. But thus no one in Europe – with the partial exception of Merkel — has to reassociate him or herself with an American President whose standing continues to slide to historic lows.
All eyes are on Washington, where the final and most important leadership change is now on the horizon. Many Europeans – as well as Americans — undoubtedly wish that the U.S. elections were this year and not next year. It is still 18 months until November 2008 and two years until a new president and his or her team is actually in place in the spring of 2009. Can the West afford to wait that long? Is this president and Administration capable, in its last 18 months in office, of using this new lineup in Europe to begin to lay the foundation for a new relationship for his successor?
Love is not about to break out across the Atlantic. But the wheels of history are turning, and a new window of opportunity is beginning to open. It is time to start laying the groundwork for a new start in transatlantic relations that will exploit that window. The Bush Administration needs to decide whether it wants to use its remaining time in office to be part of that trend or run the risk of becoming less and less relevant.
June 1st, 2007 at 9:12 am
[...] Ron Asmus, of the German Marshall fund, asks [...]
August 1st, 2007 at 11:46 am
[...] Neither does Mr. Brown dislike America. On the contrary, he often looks to the U.S. for policy ideas, admires America’s economic dynamism, and draws regularly on the political ideas and rhetoric of figures such as Kennedy. And as my colleague Ron Asmus pointed out recently, the ascendancy of Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy in Germany and France, both committed to improving their countries’ bilateral relations with the U.S., is hardly likely to encourage Brown in the opposite direction. [...]