• Opinion polls rarely look good for a governing party in mid-term (the comfortable mid-term leads seen in Blair’s first two terms are more of an anomaly than the absence of one now). Thatcher’s Conservative government faced deficits of over 20 points two years before they won the 1992 election, for example;

• Neither, I would argue, have Cameron and the Conservatives really been tested yet. His work so far has been trying to change the Conservative’s image as the “nasty party” (a quote from then-Party Chairman Theresa May in 2002), increasing their emphasis on the environment and social issues, and downplaying their traditional tax-cutting rhetoric. The closer we get to a general election, the more the details of their emerging policies will come under scrutiny;

• And even after all this, and if the Conservatives do poll well, they need to poll as much as 10 percentage points more than Labour in order to secure a majority of seats* – in contrast, Labour won a solid majority in 2005 with only a 3-point lead in percentage of votes cast. For this reason, political betting websites currently tend to offer their shortest odds on a “hung parliament” in which neither side has an outright majority.

Finally, don’t ignore the potential impact of the change of Prime Minister on Labour’s fortunes over the next few months. But to understand that, we’ll have to continue blogging…!

* The short story is that it takes fewer votes to win the urban constituencies where Labour is traditionally strong than in rural and suburban constituencies where Conservative support is stronger – but if you want to read a more thorough explanation, you can find it at:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/electoral-bias/