Turkey’s Crisis: Getting the facts straight
Since there has been considerable confusion about the current political crisis in Turkey let me explain who is who and what is happening and why it matters.
The Facts:
The current constitution requires the President to be elected by the Parliament. The Turkish Parliament is made up of 550 MPs. A 2/3 majority coincides to 367 MPs. The Constitution is not clear whether there needs to be a 2/3 majority voting in an a presidential election. The recent ruling by the Constitutional Court was in favor of having 367 MPs voting in the Parliament but the vote was annulled. The only candidate, Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul obtained 357 votes out of the 361 voting. The main opposition party the Republican People’s Party (CHP) took the vote to the Constitutional Court where it was annulled.
The Court’s ruling is seen as controversial and politically motivated, as, in the past, under the same constitution Presidents have been elected by lesser quorums (less than a 2/3 majority). Prior to the ruling on Friday night the Turkish Armed Forces issues a stern statement warning the Government that it would not accept a President from the ruling AK Party (Justice and Development Party) and would intervene if necessary. As the Turkish military has intervened four times since 1960 and has removed elected governments four times in the past the warning was taken very seriusly.
The crisis has also been colored by two large-scale rallies by people who expressed their concern that the secular nature of the Turkish Republic was in danger. These crowds also chanted anti-EU and anti-American slogans as well but many were surprised with the large numbers being able to organize themselves and express their democratic concerns. In one sense, it was a healthy democratic expression and surely was a favorable step in the further development of our democracy. Let’s not forget in the 1970s those rallies were rather violent and disruptive.
That said, one needs to acknowledge the AK Party could have put an equal if not more people out on rallies but has prudently refrained from such a step as it would even further heighten the tension.
Where are we now?
PM Erdogan announced his party’s willingness to go to early elections, most likely to take place on July 22. He also announced sweeping constitutional changes which would allow the President to be elected by the people. It is unclear whether these constitutional changes will be accepted and there will be two ballot boxes on July 22 but Ankara is very confused with the multitude of constitutional interpretations as to what can be done or not under the constitution.
If the ruling AK Party can convince (which appears to be the case for now) to go along the proposed constitutional changes then we will go to the polls both for early elections as well as the President.
Whether a popularly elected President will be more of a compromise candidate is unclear. Whether it will stabilize the regime or will satisy the powerful military’s demands is also not clear.
One other concern with elections is the 10 percent threshold quota which limits representation in Parliament. It is highly likely that a good portion of the electorate may not be able to find representation in Parliament due to this quota. Also, there are those that such significant constitutional changes should not be rushed and should be left to the aftermath of the election. The AK Party feels otherwise.
Why does it matter?
This process matters because our democracy has been too much under the guardianship of the establishment. Turkey no longer can live under the shadow of military coups. Turkey has opened up to the world, is negotiating with the EU, has been growing an average 7 percent over the last 5 years and has attracted $ 50 billion FDO over the last 3 years. It is verily part of the global economy but the political system still has to catch up.
I am providing a link to a piece I wrote today in the IHT on this.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/05/02/opinion/edsuat.php
More to come…