What’s up few days before the French vote again?
It is now only 5 days before the French will vote again and elect their new President. Few random thoughts about what is going on.
On April 27th, Ségolène Royal and François Bayrou (who got 18% of the votes in the first round) had a debate broadcasted on French radio and TV cable channels. This was very new in French politics : between the two election rounds, we usually have debates between the two finalists, but never a debate between one of these 2 and the “third man”. Royal offered such a debate in an attempt to convince Bayrou’s electorate to give her their votes in the final round. Bayrou accepted the offer to strenghten himself as the man who could be pivotal in this election since the 2 finalists need his votes. This was a very rational, issues-oriented kind of debate, where both Royal and Bayrou outlined their points of agreement and disagreement. To make a long story short, it was clear that both of them agreed on many institutional issues and what needs to be done to have European integration moving forwards, but strong divergences on some fundamental economic policy issues (Bayrou being definitely more on the pro-market economy and less public spendings side than Royal is) were also obvious. Interesting and “refreshing” to see such a debate between those 2, who in the classical French system should not have even talked to each other. Less convincing when it comes to a potential political coalition. Socialsts and centrists seem to be still far apart when it comes to economic policy.
Sarkozy had his last big campaign meeting and speech on Sunday, April 29th, attended by over 20 000 people. We know how campaigning speeches can be strong and somewhat manichean in order to mobilize the electorate so close from the final vote. But even so, Sarkozy’s speech was amazingly punchy on the issue of “ethics should be brought back to politics”. According to Sarkozy, France’s current problems and issues are related to the collapse of fundamental values triggered by May 68 “revolution”. We have to put that behind us and restore ethics and authority in politics, business, the school system, etc. Sarkozy also presented himself as the candidate of the French who are paying for “the mistakes made over years by politicians, bureaucrats, CEO’s, trade-unionists”. He also said to be the candidate of “the French who are paying for smugglers, hooligans and those who benefit from the system”. Again, campaigning speech. But definitely not on the consensus building side of things.
Moderate trade-unions leaders such as François Chérèque (who approved reforms made in the mid 90’s by Alain Juppé’s conservative government such as the one on pensions) already declared that if Sarkozy was elected, they would block any attempt by a new conservative governement to pass reforms over the summer without consulting trade-unions and “social partners”.
Latest polls give around 53/54% to Sarkozy and 47/48% to Royal. Last TV debate between the two finalists on May 2nd and final verdict on May 6th.