First round of French Presidential on Sunday
According to latest polls, Nicolas Sarkozy would get 27% of the vote, followed by Ségolène Royal at 25%, François Bayrou at 19%, and Jean-Marie Le Pen at 15.5%. It seems likely that the two main, “big” candidates, Sarkozy and Royal, will make it to the second round. If this is the case, polls show that the vote would split, 50/50. Let’s be clear first about the French polls: none of them predicted Le Pen’s surge in 2002, and as a result, we are not sure about the real impact polls have on voters. The trouble is that at the same time, polls dominate the campaign..
The most important thing as of today is that more than 40% of the electorate are still unsure about their votes. Abstention level is estimated anywhere between 5% and more than 20%, which makes predicting even more difficult, if not impossible! Some argue that pollsters are so scared to be wrong that they have a tendency to overestimate the number of undecided voters. This may be true.
But, my own experience as a citizen interferes here, it cannot be denied that the national mood is one of uncertainety and doubt just three days before the vote:
- in part because Bayrou as a challenger was able to shake the Sarkozy-Royal “tandem” and led some parts of the electorate to think that he could be “the solution” as a centrist candidate;
- also because the growing distrust among the electorate for politics and politicians at large, which makes it more difficult to have clear-cut choices. Studies show that the French electorate has become more and more volatile and “unfaithful” over the years. According to a study published back in February 2007, 6 out of 10 French citizens trust neither the conservatives nor the socialists when it comes to running the country;
- the campaign rarely focused on a few sets of defined and dominant issues or themes — what we saw was most of the candidates jumping from one issue to another, “zapping” very quickly from unemployement to national identity without a clear sense of purpose or coherent and long-term “vision”;
- and last but not least, many people still balance between voting according to their “heart” and voting “useful,” meaning doing everything to avoid having Le Pen be a choice in the second round of elections. If one wants to follow the latter path, it means making sure that both Sarkozy and Royal will make it, and then not spreading one’s vote in favor of Bayrou or any of the “smaller” candidates.
Another interesting issue is the one of the so-called “new voters” — about 44.5 million French are registered on the electoral lists, a 4.2% increase compared to 2006. It is the largest increase for a presidential election since 1981 (won by former socialist President François Mitterrand). This new electorate is mainly composed of young people living in big cities, citizens from French rural departments, and expats. According to some polls, which should be taken with caution since the number of people surveyed is relatively small, 30% of them would give their votes to Royal, 27% to Sarkozy, 22% to Bayrou and 10% to Le Pen. So a very marginal, small advantage for the socialist candidate, but nothing dramatic.
All in all, a very undecided contest. It seems very likely that the poll frontrunner Sarkozy will be in the second round, uncertainty remains as to who his opponent will be.
Will try to blog again on this Sunday night. First official results around 8:00 pm.
Amaya Bloch-Lainé & Edouard de Tinguy