François Bayrou as the “third man”
François Bayrou, candidate in the presidential race from the center-right, is threatening both Royal and Sarkozy. Polls show a consistent and striking rise in voting intentions in his favor: according to recent figures, Bayrou would get 23.5% of the votes in the first round, right behind Royal at 25.5% and Sarkozy at 27%. According to the same poll, Bayrou would win against Sarkozy in the second round, and this would also be the case if he was facing Royal.
Bayrou’s rise in the current race can be explained by a variety of factors among which the following ones: a rather clear message on Europe (more integration at EU’s level, but no further enlargement, especially to Turkey), discomfort both on the left and conservative sides of the electorate towards Sarkozy and Royal, hope for a real new way of “doing politics.” Bayrou is actually arguing that it is time for France to learn how to govern with coalitions which can associate center right and center left personnalities.
Whatever the result will be, if Bayrou was to win the race, the following questions will arise: is the country actually ready for a new type of politics consisting of a “centrist” president, and a governement composed of personnalities animated by such a good will that they could agree to govern together even if coming from different sides of the political spectrum? Who would be these people in the current landscape? Some say we had that already in French history : the IVth Republic. Well, it turned out to be a rather unstable and non entirely efficient kind of regime. What will Bayrou’s agenda as president be if he has to reconcile views from left and right? And what if he fails? What would be the alternative to an unsuccessful coalition-based governement? Is there a risk of having the extremes coming back on stage as a result? Looking at it on a more positive side, one can also argue that : it would be the best way to achieve real political change since it will lead reformers from left and right to work together, pushing the most conservative segments of both the Socialist party and the Conservative to the margins ; in such a system, Parliament would regain its power and this would be a way of getting out of the centralized and authoritative way of leading the country which is at the heart of the current French institutionnal and political system.
“Bayrou’s phenomenon,” as some observers call it now, is certainly there, and tells a lot in its own way about the growing feeling inside French public opinion and electorate that “something should really change.” But it also opens a Pandora’s box on the mid and long term. This makes this election all the more interesting…
March 16th, 2007 at 10:43 am
One of the problems that Bayrou faces is that he could not expect to have much strength in Parliament, as his UDF party is weak at a local level.
Could he play this to his advantage, arguing that a form of co-habitation with other parties will be the way to heal France?
Italy and Germany have both recently elected mega-coalitions while the UK, which is usually seen as having a political system that abhors coalition, may be heading towards a Parliament in which no single party has overall control. In the US, the last Congressional elections returned the country to the norm of the 80s and 90s when there was a President from one party and a Congress from another.
Is this the death of strong party identification? Are people looking for candidates for the top offices who transcend party (like Arnold Schwarzenegger in California)?