Where now for Vladimir Putin?

Vladimir Putin’s combatative approach to the United States at the Munich security conference this weekend prompted an ironic response from US Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates. Responding to Putin’s list of accusations over America’s role in the world, Gates said: “As an old cold warrior, one of yesterday’s speeches almost filled me with nostalgia for a less complex time…..Almost.” The West’s current relationship with Russia is indeed full of complexities, none more pressing perhaps than the question of what happens to Putin himself as he enters the last year of his second and, according to the constitution, his final term of office. So, whither Vladimir Putin?

A number of options present themselves which can be subdivided into two broad categories: Category 1, in which Putin makes good on his pledges to actually step down from the presidency and Category 2, in which he finds a way to remain in the Kremlin.

Inside the first category, several scenarios have been touted. One such scenario sees Putin taking a role such as the head of Gazprom, biding his time for four years and running again in 2012. The are dozens of variations on this theme. It is clear, however, that this would be a high risk strategy. So much power is concentrated in the Kremlin that Putin’s successor would be very difficult to dislodge once he had established himself. Another set of scenarios sees Putin shifting the bulk of the power in Russia to the premiership and finding a way to install himself as prime minister. There may not be enough time to do that though. Still another set of scenarios sees Putin simply walking off into the sunset and pulling out of politics completely. Of all the possible outcomes, this strikes me as the least likely. Putin is known to love his job. He is also young (especially for a Russian leader) and popular. He just doesn’t look like a man who is tired of power.  

Inside the second category, there is also a wide range of possible scenarios. The simplist scenario sees Putin changing the constitution, probably in response to a manufactured crisis. A well informed contact of mine in Moscow has even suggested that a faked attack by Chechen separatists on a nuclear power station is one possibility. That may be far fetched, but it gives an indication of what Putin’s opponents think he is capable of. Another long touted scenario is that Russia will force Belarus into some kind of a union state (offering to bring back full gas and oil subsidies as an incentive). This would allow Putin to become the president of the Union of Russia and Belarus while handing the Russian presidency (under this scenario an empty shell of a position) to someone else. A variation on that theme sees Putin as the head of the CIS, also allowing him to remain in power.

No-one knows what will happen. There is one thing, however, I am pretty sure of. We will not have heard the last of Vladimir Putin come the end of March, 2008.  

This entry was posted by Robin Shepherd on Monday, February 12th, 2007 at 6:10 am and is filed under Energy, European Union, Russia, Transatlantic Relations, United States.

Subscribe to the comments of this post.
You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.